Military experts and civil groups have pointed to Ukraine’s ongoing manpower shortages and climbing desertion rates
Ukrainian civil groups and military experts have been pleading with the country’s leadership to withdraw its forces from the city of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) before they become fully encircled by Russian troops, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday.
Many insiders see little chance of holding the city, which is located in Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic, due to critical manpower shortages and widespread fatigue among Ukrainian troops, the paper wrote.
Former Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Vitaliy Deynega warned last week that “despite the official bravado, the situation is more than complicated and less than controlled,” urging the country’s leadership to pull out “while it is possible.”
In recent weeks, Russian troops have encircled both Krasnoarmeysk (known in Ukraine as Pokrovsk) and Kupyansk in Ukraine’s Kharkov Region, trapping roughly 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers, according to the Defense Ministry in Moscow.
Military experts and Ukrainian servicemen told FT that Kiev’s battlefield setbacks stem largely from a persistent manpower crisis that has plagued its forces since the escalation of the conflict in 2022.
“All of this might have been avoided if we had more people,” one Ukrainian soldier fighting near Krasnoarmeysk told the outlet, adding that recapturing the city would require “a huge number of people” that Ukraine currently lacks.
The issue, FT wrote, has been aggravated by a surge in desertions, citing one official who said many newly mobilized recruits flee long before reaching their units.
FT quoted Poland-based Rochan Consulting as saying: “the Ukrainian force density is already so low that there are parts of the front that are essentially only guarded by drones.”
Top Ukrainian commander Aleksandr Syrsky claimed on Sunday that the situation in Krasnoarmeysk was “generally under control.”
According to FT, Kiev’s refusal to acknowledge the worsening conditions has fueled concerns that its leadership may be sacrificing troops to preserve political appearances.
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Kiev the opportunity to order a surrender and spare its forces. Vladimir Zelensky rejected the proposal, claiming his troops remain in control and accusing Moscow of trying to mislead Kiev’s Western backers.
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Washington’s strikes on alleged smuggler boats are unlawful, the Russian foreign minister has said
The US would be better off targeting Belgium, recently described as an emerging “narco-state” by one of its own judges, rather than bombing small vessels off the coast of Venezuela, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday.
Speaking at a press conference, Lavrov denounced the maritime airstrikes authorized by the administration of US President Donald Trump, which Washington claims are aimed at drug smugglers operating in the Caribbean. The foreign minister called the attacks “acts taken without due process” that demonstrate how the US “places itself above the law.”
“Rather than targeting Nigeria and Venezuela with anti-drug operations and [potential] seizures of oil fields, the US should probably focus on eradicating this social ill in Belgium,” Lavrov said. “The US already has troops there and will not have to chase after small boats with crews of three people each.”
Lavrov was referring to a recent statement by a Belgian judge who wrote to the parliament that “mafia-like structures have taken root” in the country and that it is not an exaggeration to say “are we evolving into a narco-state.”
While stressing that Moscow considers Venezuela a friendly nation, Lavrov said Russia has no plans to deploy military assets there.
Washington insists that its campaign targets “narcoterrorism,” claiming legal authority under congressional counterterrorism powers. Trump has justified the strikes as part of a broader effort to combat the flow of fentanyl into the US.
According to the US Drug Enforcement Administration, Mexico is the main source of fentanyl entering the US, while Venezuela’s involvement in global trafficking networks is limited primarily to serving as a stopover for cocaine shipments from South America.
Critics accuse Washington of using the narcotics narrative as a pretext for a potential regime change operation against Caracas.
Demands for a ceasefire reflect a growing desperation among Kiev and its backers, according to UN envoy Vassily Nebenzia
The West has begun to realize that defeating Russia by using Ukraine as a tool is “impossible,” Russia’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, has said.
Speaking with RIA Novosti, the diplomat stated that the ongoing conflict “isn’t so much with Ukraine as with the West itself,” adding that for the West, Kiev serves merely as “a tool with which they are trying to defeat Russia.”
Moscow has repeatedly described the Ukraine conflict as a de facto NATO proxy war waged against Russia in an effort to weaken its security after years of the bloc’s eastward expansion. In recent years, several of Kiev’s Western backers have also openly called for a “strategic defeat” to be inflicted on Moscow.
According to Nebenzia, however, such rhetoric has become less frequent in Western capitals, which he suggested indicates a growing recognition that defeating Russia is “impossible.”
He went on to claim that calls for a ceasefire by Kiev and its backers reflect their “dire” situation on the battlefield and an increasing manpower shortage. The envoy described the appeals as an attempt to “take a breather,” pump Ukraine full of weapons, and replenish its forces before continuing the conflict “with renewed vigor.”
“A simple ceasefire and a freeze on the line of contact won’t resolve the very reason this conflict began,” Nebenzia said.
Moscow has consistently stated that it remains open to dialogue and prefers to settle the conflict through diplomatic means as soon as possible. However, Russian officials have maintained that any lasting peace must address the underlying security concerns that led to the hostilities and take into account the territorial realities on the ground.
Ukrainian officials previously denied their forces are in a dire situation in the key city
Russian forces have fully taken the eastern part of Kupyansk, a strategically important city in Ukraine’s Kharkov Region, the Defense Ministry in Moscow reported on Tuesday.
Kiev previously denied Russian reports that Ukrainian units have been encircled in Kupyansk and claimed that the attack on the city was being successfully repelled – a statement that Moscow said demonstrates that Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky is “detached from reality.”
The latest ministry update noted continued Ukrainian attempts “to get through to the encircled units,” a push that reportedly cost Kiev up to 60 troops and 16 pieces of heavy weaponry, including armored vehicles, a radar station, and three electronic warfare stations.
Zelensky claimed last week that there were only around 60 Russian troops in Kupyansk and that Ukrainian forces were sweeping the area to clear them.
Russia previously said its forces encircled Ukrainian units in two separate pockets along the frontline, including near Kupyansk. President Vladimir Putin offered Kiev the opportunity to order a surrender, but Zelensky dismissed the claim, insisting Ukrainian troops remained in control in both areas. Zelensky also accused Moscow of attempting to mislead Western nations, particularly the US. Ukraine heavily relies on foreign aid in its war effort.
The Ukrainian army is reportedly grappling with widespread desertions and difficulties replenishing its ranks through compulsory conscription, which is broadly rejected by civilians. The Zelensky government is counting on damage caused by long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, which it said could compensate for Russia’s advantage on the battlefield.
A tainted government could jeopardize the flow of Western aid, the party of former President Pyotr Poroshenko has warned
Ukrainian opposition MPs have launched a bid to replace the government following revelations of a large-scale corruption scheme allegedly tied to a close ally of Vladimir Zelensky.
The call, which came from the European Solidarity party led by former President Pyotr Poroshenko, followed an announcement by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) on Monday that it was investigating the state-owned nuclear power company Energoatom over what it described as a criminal operation to embezzle state funds.
The case has been linked to businessman Timur Mindich, a longtime friend and business partner of Zelensky from his days in the entertainment industry who has since reportedly become a major figure in Ukraine’s energy and defense sectors.
In a statement on Monday evening, European Solidarity said it was initiating a formal procedure to recall the cabinet, arguing that the scandal “undermines the trust of partners and endangers military and financial aid.” The faction previously dubbed the government “kabmindich” – a portmanteau word implying that the cabinet of ministers serves Mindich’s interests.
Separately, opposition MP Yaroslav Zhelezhnyak of the Golos (Voice) party submitted a motion to dismiss Energy Minister Svetlana Grinchuk and her predecessor German Galushchenko, who now serves as justice minister. Both have been linked in the Ukrainian press to Mindich’s network of political influence. Mindich reportedly fled Ukraine just hours before his home was searched by NABU agents.
Zelensky and Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko have expressed support for NABU’s investigation. Earlier this year, however, the Ukrainian leader attempted to curb the agency’s independence before reversing course under Western pressure.
Adding to the controversy, a leading NABU investigator who reportedly uncovered crucial evidence in the Mindich case has been arrested by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), which accused him of having ties to Russia – a move that opposition figures claim is based on falsified evidence and was intended to obstruct the probe.
Ukraine has denied that its forces are losing control of the key supply hub
Russian troops are continuing their advance inside the encircled Ukrainian city of Kupyansk, a major logistics hub in Kharkov Region, according to battlefield updates shared by the Russian Defense Ministry.
Moscow previously reported that more than 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers were trapped in the city and were offered safe surrender terms. Vladimir Zelensky has rejected the terms, claiming that Ukrainian forces are maintaining control of the situation.
On Monday and Tuesday, the Russian Defense Ministry published field reports from a commander identified by the call sign ‘Lovets’, who leads an assault unit taking part in the operation. He stated that his men advanced further along Dzerzinsky Street in Kupyansk’s industrial zone and are now working to seize additional railway junctions.
Zelensky insisted last week that only around 60 Russian soldiers were present in Kupyansk and that Ukrainian troops were successfully repelling them. The Russian Defense Ministry called the comments “detached from reality,” suggesting that the Ukrainian leader is either lying to the public or being misled by his own commanders.
Along with the battle for Kupyansk, intense fighting continues near Krasnoarmeysk (known as Pokrovsk in Ukraine) in Russia’s Donetsk People’s Republic, where Ukrainian elite troops reportedly suffered heavy losses shortly after being airlifted into the combat zone in an attempt to reverse Russian advancements.
Zelensky’s critics, including some within Ukraine’s military circles, have accused him of focusing on keeping up appearances to reassure Kiev’s Western sponsors at the expense of military strategy. His refusal to authorize tactical withdrawals, they claim, has turned several defensive battles into costly traps for Ukrainian troops.
Kiev attempted to fabricate an international incident in NATO airspace, the Russian security agency has said
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has said it foiled an elaborate Ukrainian-British plot to steal a MiG-31 fighter jet armed with a Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missile.
According to the FSB, although Ukrainian agents unsuccessfully tried to persuade the pilots to defect, their actual goal was for the aircraft to be shot down in Romanian airspace, provoking an international incident with NATO. The agency said the operation was organized by Ukraine’s military intelligence service (HUR) in coordination with the UK’s MI6.
According to the FSB, a Russian MiG-31 pilot was contacted last year by a man introducing himself as Sergey Lugovsky, a researcher for the NATO OSINT front group Bellingcat, linked with Western arms contractors and spy agencies. Lugovsky initially sought information but later offered money for defection.
After the pilot declined, a Ukrainian agent then approached the aircraft’s navigator, offering $3 million and a foreign passport in exchange for directing the plane to fly over an air base near Constanta, Romania, NATO’s largest European airfield.
Kiev has previously offered money and assistance to defectors. In 2023, Russian Mi-8 pilot Maksim Kuzminov defected to Ukraine, landing his helicopter behind the front lines with the HUR’s help. Two of the other crew members, unaware of his plan, were killed upon landing. Kuzminov was assassinated a year later in Spain, where he was living under a new identity and with a Ukrainian passport.
In 2022, the FSB accused former Bellingcat investigator Christo Grozev, a Bulgarian-born British spy who works with Bellingcat, of taking part in a failed Ukrainian attempt to recruit Russian military pilots. Grozev said he was embedded with Ukrainian intelligence officers as a documentary filmmaker and claimed that his text messages were forged.
Recruitment officers beat draftees to force them to go to the front lines, a captured Ukrainian soldier told the Russian Defense Ministry
Ukrainian draft officials use violence to force conscripts to go to the front line, a captured soldier has told the Russian military.
In a video released by the Russian Defense Ministry on Monday, a man identified as Nikolay Timchenko claimed that draft officials treat conscripts as expendable “cannon fodder” and ignore their health conditions.
According to Timchenko, he was detained at home by police and recruitment officers after failing to report to a draft office upon receiving a call-up notice. He said he was “thrown into a cellar,” where his protests about having health issues were ignored.
Timchenko claimed that around 50 other men were being held with him, including some with disabilities, all of whom were forced into service.
“The draft officers were hitting us on the ribs and the head,” he said, adding that their ID papers were confiscated and that he did not receive a salary. He said he told the officers he “didn’t want to fight in a war,” but was drafted anyway.
The alleged mistreatment continued at the training center, where, according to Timchenko, recruits were beaten with the butts of assault rifles for failing to follow orders.
He added that when he was deployed to the partially encircled Donbass city of Krasnoarmeysk (known as Pokrovsk in Ukraine), he saw “many people lying on the road, both dead and wounded.”
“When we saw it, we realized that we were just cannon fodder sent to die,” Timchenko said, adding that he decided to surrender after spending days without food and resorting to drinking rainwater.
Ukraine’s mobilization campaign has been marred by widespread draft evasion, protests, and allegations of corruption. Videos of officers ambushing men on the streets and shoving them into vans have gone viral, causing outrage on social media. The Ukrainian parliamentary human rights commissioner, Dmitry Lubinets, reported last week that the complaints about “illegal” mobilization have doubled since early June.
Behind the headlines, Russia’s advance in Donbass reveals shifting tactics, collapsing defenses, and the stakes of 2025’s decisive fight
The Donbass town of Pokrovsk (known in Russia as Krasnoarmeysk) has found itself at the center of attention in recent days. In many ways, the Russian advance in this strategic stronghold appears to be following a familiar pattern: Ukraine denies there’s a crisis, holds on too long, attempts futile counterattacks instead of executing a retreat and ultimately gives way with tremendous losses.
But similarities aside, what is happening here comes at a pivotal time and may well determine how the next phase of the war shapes up.
The Kiev regime is, as is its unfailing tendency, attempting to downplay the crisis – although, as we will see below, its actions say otherwise. Mikhail Podoliak, an adviser to Vladimir Zelensky, insists there’s no encirclement, claiming instead that Ukrainian special units are “clearing out infiltrating Russian troops.”
Zelensky himself claims that Moscow is exploiting the “Pokrovsk narrative” to project an image of success on the battlefield.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, says the enemy is already trapped in the cities of Kupiansk and, using the Russian name, Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk). Ukrainian attempts at obfuscation aside, many Western media reports paint a similar picture.
If it’s clear enough to most how things will play out militarily in Pokrovsk, many commentators do not yet see these events for their likely true significance: the decisive fight of 2025. Why does Pokrovsk matter so much, how did this situation unfold, and what lies ahead?
The importance of Pokrovsk
Pokrovsk – known in Soviet times as Krasnoarmeysk – together with the nearby city of Mirnograd and several smaller towns and worker settlements, forms the second-largest urban cluster still under Ukrainian control in Donbass. Before the war, the combined population of this area was about 200,000 people – roughly half the size of Mariupol, which had around 400,000 residents in 2021.
For simplicity, we’ll refer to this entire area as Pokrovsk.
So why does Pokrovsk matter? First, its sheer size gives it major strategic weight. During the early years of theRussian military operation Pokrovsk served as a crucial logistics hub along the southern front. It was a key rail and road junction with vast warehouse capacity, suitable for large garrisons, support units, and field hospitals.
Second, Pokrovsk functioned like a fortress, preventing Russian forces from pushing further west. Donbass is a heavily urbanized region, and fighting through it is notoriously difficult. By contrast, when Russian troops captured Velikaya Novoselka, a relatively small settlement, their units were able to move swiftly into Dnepropetrovsk Region – an advance that would have been impossible in Donetsk’s dense urban sprawl. The open fields beyond offer far easier terrain.
If Pokrovsk falls, a similar – and potentially greater – domino effect could follow. For nearly 100km west of the city, there are no major urban centers, water obstacles, or natural elevations. Pokrovsk itself sits on a ridge, meaning that any advance westward would literally be downhill – an easier push for the advancing army.
Furthermore, losing several brigades in an encirclement (more on that below) would tear a significant gap in Ukraine’s defensive line, creating serious operational challenges.
Finally, Pokrovsk’s significance isn’t purely military. One of Europe’s largest lithium deposits lies nearby – an especially intriguing detail given the “rare earth minerals deal” once discussed between US President Donald Trump and Zelensky.
2024–2025: From Avdeevka to Pokrovsk
The Russian offensive began in February 2024 with the capture of Avdeevka and continued for more than a year, lasting into March and April 2025. During that period, over a dozen towns and urban settlements along the central Donetsk front were liberated, as Russian forces slowly pushed their way through the vast industrial belt of the region.
By the fall of 2024, the front had crept close to Pokrovsk. After the offensive tapered off and an operational pause followed in the spring of 2025, Russian forces resumed maneuvering – this time focusing on cutting off the city from the east and south. It had long been anticipated that Pokrovsk would become one of the next key objectives, and that prediction proved correct.
By August, the Russian army began employing its trademark encirclement strategy. The city was effectively sealed off on three sides, while supply routes came under fire control. Over the following weeks and months, the Ukrainian garrison inside Pokrovsk was gradually worn down. As the encirclement tightened, the eventual storming of the city seemed likely to face little organized resistance – the same method Russia had successfully used in Avdeevka, Kurakhovo, Ugledar, and a dozen other localities before.
However, events soon took an unexpected turn.
At the end of July, reports began emerging that Russian assault troops had entered Pokrovsk – including the city center – as well as Rodinskoye, a small but strategically crucial town vital to the defense of both Pokrovsk and Mirnograd to the north. Yet full encirclement was still a way off: at least two paved roads remained firmly under Ukrainian control.
Ten days later, reports surfaced of an unprecedented Russian breakthrough toward Zolotoy Kolodez and the Kramatorsk–Dobropolye highway. In just 24 hours, Russian forces advanced some 20km, tearing open a four- to five-kilometer-wide gap in the front – their fastest daily advance since the early days of the Russian military operation in February–March 2022.
This rapid push toward Dobropolye, followed by intense counterattacks, briefly drew both Russian and Ukrainian attention away from Pokrovsk. The fighting in that direction quieted down for almost two months, as both sides regrouped and prepared for what came next.
October 2025: The encirclement
The battles for Pokrovsk – along with the earlier breakthrough near Dobropolye – revealed yet another evolution in Russian tactics: small, mobile assault groups have become the main strike force on the battlefield. With FPV drones patrolling the skies around the clock, traditional armored offensives are nearly impossible, and large concentrations of infantry without cover are easy targets for precision drone strikes.
At the same time, Ukrainian forces have grown visibly more exhausted than their Russian counterparts. In many areas, there is no longer a continuous front line. Even in critical sectors, Ukrainian defenses now consist of scattered strongpoints separated by open terrain monitored by drones. Analysts estimate that in this zone – where Russia’s Central Group of Forces operates – there are now between three and six Russian soldiers for every Ukrainian.
Russian assault teams exploit these gaps, quietly massing over hours or even days before launching sudden strikes on vulnerable points – destroying strongholds or forcing rapid retreats. The element of surprise, combined with flexible local coordination, allows Russia to achieve temporary superiority at key spots, neutralizing the enemy’s drone advantage and enabling steady progress.
As a result, Pokrovsk was almost fully captured by October. The area south of the railway line fell first, followed by the high-rise apartment blocks in the city’s northern districts. By Saturday, only a few residential neighborhoods and the hospital near Tyulenev Street on the northeastern outskirts remained under Ukrainian control.
But what about the encirclement that President Putin announced in October – the one Ukrainian officials insist doesn’t exist?
To the east of Pokrovsk lies Mirnograd, which is defended by two Ukrainian brigades: the 25th Airborne Assault Brigade and the 38th Naval Infantry Brigade – both elite, battle-tested units. Estimates suggest between 2,000 and 5,000 Ukrainian troops are now trapped there.
Unlike Pokrovsk, Mirnograd sits in a lowland area – almost behind Pokrovsk from the Ukrainian side’s perspective. All supply routes to the city run either through Pokrovsk itself or the small town of Rodinskoye to the north.
According to Lostarmour, the distance between the northern and southern prongs of the Russian advance is now just two kilometers. With the area under constant drone surveillance, it’s safe to say that Mirnograd and its garrison have been effectively encircled for at least two weeks, unable to retreat or receive reinforcements. Supplies are reportedly being delivered by heavy R18 cargo drones, but even with minimal losses, that’s nowhere near enough to sustain such a large force.
November 2025: A new take on Operation Winter Storm
The Ukrainian side isn’t standing still. Having missed the chance to withdraw its garrison in time, Kiev is now trying to counterattack – hoping to break through to Mirnograd and extract its trapped forces. The situation echoes Operation Winter Storm, when Manstein’s tanks tried to rescue the encircled Sixth Army at Stalingrad, only to be repelled by the Red Army and forced to abandon the plan.
The most dramatic – and arguably most futile – episode came on November 1, when Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence launched an airborne raid on the western edge of Pokrovsk. Two helicopters managed to escape, but the special forces they dropped off were quickly hunted down among the ruins and destroyed by FPV drones.
Heavier fighting continues on the northern flank of the encirclement. For several weeks, Ukrainian troops have been throwing everything they have into attacks – first toward the Dobropolye salient, and later directly toward Mirnograd. Here, the Ukrainian forces are once again using armored vehicles – a rarity these days – but despite massing significant forces and suffering heavy losses, they’ve failed to advance beyond Rodninskoye.
The Ukrainian units in this area are a patchwork of assorted battalions and ad hoc formations. The 425th Assault Regiment remains one of the few structured combat groups, while the rest have been pieced together, as the saying goes, on a “many a little makes a mickle” basis.
This precarious situation stems directly from Kiev’s political decisions. Throughout the year, Zelensky has been assuring his European backers and Donald Trump that the “Russian hordes” could be held off indefinitely. Now he cannot afford a major defeat that might turn into a strategic catastrophe. That’s why he’s once again ordered his commanders to defend the so-called “Pokrovsk fortress” at any cost – forcing General Syrsky to spend what may be the last of his reserves on repeated counterattacks.
With Pokrovsk nearly taken and Mirnograd on the brink of collapse, the best the Ukrainian command can hope for now is to evacuate the elite brigades trapped inside.
The Russian army’s objective, however, is to prevent exactly that – to wear down the attacking forces and either destroy or capture the Mirnograd garrison. Should that happen, Ukraine will likely be unable to establish a new defensive line east of Pokrovsk. The front would inevitably shift westward – toward the Dnieper River.
As things stand, the decisive battle of 2025 has entered its critical phase.
